Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Going electric in Khartoum


The globalization of world finance continues and the biggest beneficiaries in 2012 might not be the BRIC nations that will be feeling the benefits the most. Brazil's growth looks promising for 2012, but their GDP/capita is going to take awhile to catch up. Russia is in political chaos with anger simmering beneath the surface, threatening to boil over. India looks solid but as more and more US states look to bar governmental outsourcing it is possible (though unlikely) that anti-globalization in America could hem some growth. China's economy is overheated and they are looking to curb growth some to ease inflationary pressure. Of course these are just predictions and everything could change or be derailed.

But African nations are starting to join the ranks of the developing world that is benefiting from globalization in ways many predicted to be far off dreams rather than achievable goals. Khartoum, the capital of Sudan has had a bourse since 1995 but the prices of shares of stock were handwritten on whiteboards and transactions were marked with paper printed receipts. Of course the bourse in Khartoum is small in scale and size compared to other more established ones, but even if only a small number of traders came on the floor it would be hard to keep up with the pace of today's financial worlds. Next week, the whiteboards will be replaced by a new computerized system.

It is the hope of officials that the new electric bourse will foster more trade, driving up the prices in the market. It is also aimed at attracting outside development, especially from rich partners in the Arab League like Abu Dhabi and Dubai. In addition to providing more accurate and the potential for more voluminous trading, it will also work to stamp out pre-trading deals and make the whole process more transparent. In turn the transparency will provide foreign investors more security and hopefully, make them more willing to invest. Sudan badly needs that investment.

The split of Sudan and South Sudan last year has put pressure on an already fragile economy. South Sudan holds the majority of the oil. While Sudan has most of the refineries thus forcing the two sides to work together, it still has taken a toll on economic output. Also, many invest in what are called shahama, bonds that the cash strapped government pays 20% yields on. But, all is not dire. Silk Invest, a British Hedge Fund that focuses on emerging markets is starting to pay attention to the Khartoum bourse. A little hedge fund money could create the liquidity needed to grow Sudanese industry. However, for the moment American sanctions put a damper on much Western investment. But as the West continues to limp through rough economic times, wealthier Arab nations and China could be the boom needed in Khartoum.

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